As voters in the Hamilton constituency heads to the polls, a once-fringe party is creeping into the mainstream. Reform UK’s surge in Scotland signals more than voter frustration – it’s a red flag waving in plain sight. Behind the anti-migrant soundbites and “ordinary people” branding lies a dangerous populism exploiting political disillusionment. This by-election isn’t just about one seat – it’s a test of how far we’ve let the rot spread.

In the last Holyrood election, Reform didn’t do much damage – scraping just 0.2% of the vote. But fast forward to 2024, they reached a 7% vote share, performing the best outside the four main parties and receiving nearly twice as much support as the Scottish Greens. Let that sink in. The party that wants to scrap net zero targets is getting more traction than the one literally trying to stop the world burning.

Now? They’re scoring 17-18% in voting intention polls, putting them in a “comfortable third place”, and around one third of previous Conservative voters have jumped ship directlyReform. Translation: they’re not just loitering anymore. They’re knocking at the door – and a third of Tory voters have already let them in.

SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney called the by-election a “two horse race” between his party and Reform UK. Which is terrifying when you realise one of those horses is being ridden by Nigel Farage in a Union Jack saddle, shouting about “British values” through a megaphone.

Across the UK, Reform’s polling at 23%. That’s not a protest vote. That’s a warning sign flashing in bright red. Reform UK are appealing to the wider public. 

It’s the same undercurrent we explored in “Is Your Dad Being Radicalised?” – that slow drip of discontent, nostalgia and fear, bottled and sold as patriotism.

Reform likes to brand itself as the voice of “ordinary people.” But let’s be real: these are not paycheque-to-paycheque voices. This is a campaign led by millionaires who think punching down on migrants and trans people counts as policy. 

And their supporters? Yougov data paints a bleak picture.

• 89% believe “young people don’t respect traditional British values.”
• 86% want all Channel-crossing migrants removed and banned from ever returning.
• 78% think multiculturalism has made the UK worse.

Today’s by-election won’t change the political landscape overnight, but it will equip reform with the momentum to claim legitimacy. It’s not just about one seat in Holyrood – it’s about the kind of politics we allow to grow in the cracks of a broken system.