{"id":1468,"date":"2025-06-05T12:59:37","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T11:59:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jusmedia.co.uk\/riotandreason\/?p=1468"},"modified":"2025-06-05T15:47:56","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T14:47:56","slug":"scottish-hamilton-by-election-reform","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jusmedia.co.uk\/riotandreason\/2025\/06\/05\/scottish-hamilton-by-election-reform\/","title":{"rendered":"When the system cracks, Reform UK might just slip in"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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As voters in the Hamilton constituency heads to the polls, a once-fringe party is creeping into the mainstream. Reform UK\u2019s surge in Scotland signals more than voter frustration – it\u2019s a red flag waving in plain sight. Behind the anti-migrant soundbites and \u201cordinary people\u201d branding lies a dangerous populism exploiting political disillusionment. This by-election isn\u2019t just about one seat – it\u2019s a test of how far we\u2019ve let the rot spread.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the last Holyrood election, Reform didn\u2019t do much damage – scraping just 0.2% of the vote. But fast forward to 2024, they reached a 7% vote share<\/a>, performing the best outside the four main parties and receiving nearly twice as much support as the Scottish Greens. Let that sink in. The party that wants to scrap net zero targets is getting more traction than the one literally trying to stop the world burning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Scottish Voting Intentions
according to the Scottish Election Study<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now? They\u2019re scoring 17-18% in voting intention polls, putting them in a \u201ccomfortable third place\u201d<\/a>, and around one third of previous Conservative voters have jumped ship directlyReform. Translation: they\u2019re not just loitering anymore. They\u2019re knocking at the door – and a third of Tory voters have already let them in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney called the by-election a \u201ctwo horse race\u201d between his party and Reform UK. Which is terrifying when you realise one of those horses is being ridden by Nigel Farage in a Union Jack saddle, shouting about \u201cBritish values\u201d through a megaphone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the UK, Reform\u2019s polling at 23%. That\u2019s not a protest vote. That\u2019s a warning sign flashing in bright red. Reform UK are appealing to the wider public. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s the same undercurrent we explored in \u201cIs Your Dad Being Radicalised<\/a>?\u201d – that slow drip of discontent, nostalgia and fear, bottled and sold as patriotism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reform likes to brand itself as the voice of \u201cordinary people.\u201d But let\u2019s be real: these are not paycheque-to-paycheque voices. This is a campaign led by millionaires who think punching down on migrants and trans people<\/a> counts as policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And their supporters? Yougov<\/a> data paints a bleak picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n